Prediction of high-risk plaque development and plaque progression with the carotid atherosclerosis score.

OBJECTIVES The goal of this prospective study was to evaluate the carotid atherosclerosis score (CAS) for predicting the development of high-risk plaque features and plaque burden progression. BACKGROUND Previous studies have shown that carotid intraplaque hemorrhage (IPH) and a disrupted luminal surface (DLS), as identified by using magnetic resonance imaging, are associated with greater risk for cerebrovascular events. On the basis of data from a large cross-sectional study, a scoring system was developed to determine which plaque features are associated with the presence of IPH and DLS. However, the predictive value of CAS has not been previously tested in a prospective, longitudinal study. METHODS A total of 120 asymptomatic subjects with 50% to 79% carotid stenosis underwent carotid magnetic resonance imaging scans at baseline and 3 years thereafter. Presence of IPH and DLS, wall volume, maximum wall thickness, and maximum percent lipid-rich necrotic core area were measured at both time-points. Baseline CAS values were calculated on the basis of previously published criteria. RESULTS Of the 73 subjects without IPH or DLS at baseline, 9 (12%) developed 1 or both of these features during follow-up. There was a significant increasing trend between CAS and the development of new DLS (p < 0.001) and with plaque burden progression (p = 0.03) but not with the development of new IPH (p = 0.3). Percent carotid stenosis was not significantly associated with new DLS (p = 0.2), new IPH (p = 0.1), or plaque progression (p = 0.6). CONCLUSIONS CAS was found to have a significant increasing relationship with incident DLS and plaque progression in this prospective study. CAS can potentially provide improved risk stratification beyond luminal stenosis.